Jennifer E. Smith’s The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight (2012) is one of nine books that she has written for young adults to date. In an interview with Buzz Magazine, Smith said, “I’m kind of obsessed with moments in time that act as hinges, days where there’s a really clear split between before and after—where yesterday, your life was one way, and tomorrow it will be entirely different” (“Author Interview: Jennifer E. Smith.” Medium, 30 Mar. 2020). This statement aptly describes Smith’s third novel, a romance that begins with an unpredictable but seemingly fated meeting between Hadley, an American woman on her way to London for her father’s second wedding, and Oliver, an Englishman on his way to London for his father’s funeral. Their fortuitous meeting eases the pain of their individual circumstances and helps both Hadley and Oliver to recognize that although life may seem unpredictable, there are no accidents.

This guide refers to the 2012 paperback edition, published by Poppy, an imprint of Little, Brown and Company.

Plot Summary

The narrative notes that on the day of Hadley Sullivan’s trip to London, if any of the mishaps or inconveniences that she experienced did not occur, she never would have missed her flight and taken a later one. She may not believe in fate, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist.

Hadley is claustrophobic and dreads airports and airplanes. When she misses her flight by four minutes and must accept a seat on the next one, she must spend what she anticipates will be a tortuous three hours at the airport and risks missing her father’s London wedding altogether. She doesn’t even want to attend and has never met his fiancée, Charlotte, whom she has decided to hate. Hadley is angry at her dad because he left her mom unexpectedly and upended the entire family dynamic. She has brought a book that her dad gave to her last year: Charles Dickens’s Our Mutual Friend. She intends to return it to him unread as a sign of protest.

She meets Oliver when he offers to help with her suitcase, and she is happy for his company because it distracts her from thoughts of her father’s betrayal and her claustrophobia. Her father, Andrew Sullivan, was supposed to teach at Oxford for one semester and come home a semester later; instead, he fell in love and opted to remain in England. Like Hadley’s dad, her mom, Kate, has also found love again; she has become involved with a dentist named Harrison Doyle, but Hadley fears that Kate has declined his three marriage proposals because she is still in love with Andrew.

Hadley and Oliver get to know each other over dinner and during their flight, and they develop a mutual attraction. She assumes that he is also going to London for a wedding, an assumption that he does not correct. On the plane, Hadley and Oliver discuss everything from marriage to movies. Oliver distracts Hadley from her claustrophobia, though he grows uncomfortable when she asks him about his father. They talk about her copy of the Dickens novel, and when Oliver thumbs through it, Hadley notices for the first time that her father has underlined a passage. It seems that he hopes she will see and consider the question it poses, about whether it is better to have something wonderful and lose it than to have never had it. She tells Oliver what happened with her parents’ marriage and why she is angry, but he remains reluctant to share anything about his dad. He comments on Hadley’s openness compared to his own family’s reticence to talk about what bothers them.

After several hours of intense conversation, Hadley and Oliver learn that they are both single. When they eventually get up to use the bathrooms, they must stand close together in a small space and very nearly kiss before the moment is interrupted. They take turns sleeping on one another’s shoulders, waking and conversing throughout the night, but in the morning, everything feels more formal and unfamiliar. Hadley and Oliver part at customs, but not before they share a passionate kiss amid the throngs. Hadley tries to wait for Oliver at baggage claim, but she must leave in order to arrive on time for the wedding.

Hadley arrives at the church just a few minutes before the ceremony is to start. The other bridesmaids encircle her, fixing her make-up, hair, and dress, and then the wedding begins. When she sees how happy her father is, she feels hurt. The narrator shares a story from Hadley’s childhood, when she was reluctant to release a firefly that she caught in a jar. Her father told her that if she loves something, she must be willing to free it. Looking for her father after the ceremony, Hadley overhears Charlotte and a friend talking and infers that Charlotte is pregnant. She feels like her dad has a new life that does not include her, and she thinks of how she wanted nothing to do with his life after he left her mom. Hadley now regrets that choice and makes an effort not to run from her discomfort.

When some wedding guests mention a funeral that they must attend in the same part of London to which Oliver was going, Hadley realizes that Oliver never said he was going to a wedding. She has an intuition that this funeral is his father’s. She feels that she must go and tells her dad, who is shocked and angry. First, she gets on a bus going the wrong way, then she gets on the tube and must use her book to distract her from her claustrophobia. It is then that she sees another underlined section, which addresses the idea that there are days that make a person want to live and days that make a person want to die. Reading the passage, she realizes that she ought to be grateful that she is in London to attend her father’s wedding and not his funeral. She doesn’t know to go when she gets off the tube, so she searches for a church that looks like the one Oliver described. Lost and losing hope, she calls her mom, but Kate doesn’t answer. She thinks of her mom’s claim that love is strange and illogical. Now, Hadley must rely on her intuition to find Oliver, and this approach feels odd to her. Just then, she spots a church and just knows that it’s the right one. She’s right, but Oliver’s welcome is not enthusiastic, and Hadley feels that she has made a terrible mistake in coming, especially when a pretty girl interrupts them. Oliver tells her the truth: that his dad cheated on his mom for years, and they all kept silent about it to protect her. Now, he doesn’t want to pretend anymore. He kisses Hadley and says that it’s the most honest thing he has done all day. When he walks away, Hadley picks up her book, which falls open, and she sees another underlined sentence addressing the importance of people who lighten others’ burdens. She leaves the book for Oliver to find and returns to the hotel.

When Hadley sees her dad again, she realizes how much she has missed him and how much of his life she has missed, and she knows that she doesn’t want to miss any more. She bursts into tears, telling him all about Oliver and how silly she feels for tracking him down. Her dad reassures her that she is not ridiculous, that what she did for Oliver was loving and that love doesn’t usually make sense. Hadley now considers something that Oliver said: that it took courage for her dad to leave when he wanted to go. Hadley realizes that she cannot know if her family would have been happier if he had stayed, but he is so very happy now, and so is her mom. She decides that she is glad he’s happy. Hadley even begins to like Charlotte.

The wedding reception is beautiful, and everyone has a great time, including Hadley. During their dance, Hadley mentions the baby that she thinks Charlotte is carrying, and Andrew tells her that Charlotte is not pregnant, although they are hoping to have a baby. Hadley is pleased for them and hopes to be an involved big sister. She realizes that although many things have changed, what’s most important to her—her relationship with her dad—is the same.

By the end of the night, Hadley is exhausted and steps outside to call her mom. She finally reaches Kate and speaks with her until her phone’s battery runs out. Gazing into the dark, she sees Oliver approaching and bursts into tears again. He returns her book, and they talk about his dad. Oliver is less angry, and he is more receptive to Hadley’s attempts to support him. He asks her to dance, and they share a passionate kiss that feels like the beginning of something. Inside, on the dance floor, he tells her that he is studying the statistical probability of love at first sight at Yale, which she doesn’t believe. But when he says that people who meet the way they did are 98% more likely to meet again, Hadley decides to believe him.