Only If You’re Lucky (2024) is a thriller/mystery novel by award-winning author Stacy Willingham. Willingham is best known for her novels A Flicker in the Dark and All the Dangerous Things, and her books have been listed on the New York Times, the USA Today, and international bestseller lists. Only If You’re Lucky quickly received praise from BookRiot, Goodreads, and LibraryReads.

Within the thriller genre, Only If You’re Lucky falls into the mystery and crime subgenres and contains some elements of the horror and action subgenres. In addition, the novel neatly fits into the genre of psychological suspense because of its shifting perspectives, altered timelines, and subversion of identity and memory.

The novel addresses the complexities of socialization in high school and college, centering on a group of friends who encounter dangers in both their present and past that threaten to tear them apart. The main character, Margot, is taken in by the charismatic Lucy Sharpe, whose popularity and wild demeanor hide a sinister secret that endangers Margot, Lucy, and their friends Sloane and Nicole. Through Margot’s story, the novel explores themes relating to dualities and facades, loyalty and betrayal, and unique challenges for young women.

This guide refers to the 2024 Kindle Minotaur Books edition of the text, available through St. Martin’s Publishing Group.

Content Warning: This guide describes and discusses the source text’s treatment of death and murder, domestic abuse, sexual violence, and drug and alcohol misuse.

Plot Summary

Throughout Margot’s childhood, she was best friends with Eliza Jefferson. Margot is timid and cautious, whereas Eliza is outgoing and popular. Margot plans to go to Rutledge College with Eliza after high school, though Margot’s parents object. They sustain a strong friendship until, in their senior year, Levi Butler moves in next to Eliza’s family. Levi and Eliza form a romantic relationship, and they have secrets that Margot doesn’t know about. Margot feels separated from Eliza, and the two grow apart, while Margot increasingly resents Levi for taking Eliza away from her. On one occasion, Margot and Eliza become convinced that Levi broke into Eliza’s house and stole a picture, but Eliza continues to date him. On the night of the senior class party, Eliza falls to her death. She was last seen with Levi, and he’s the only suspect in her death before it’s ruled an accident.

At Rutledge, Margot moves in with Maggie, a young woman much like Margot, but they don’t become close friends because of Margot’s desire to change. Margot spends her freshman year struggling with the grief of losing her best friend, and she’s strangely attracted to Lucy Sharpe, a young woman Margot meets in her dormitory. Rumors surround Lucy, and she’s always accompanied by her two friends Sloane Peters and Nicole Clausen. At the end of freshman year, Lucy invites Margot to live with her, Sloane, and Nicole off campus, and Margot agrees. Margot notices that Lucy wears a necklace that reminds her of Eliza, and Lucy’s demeanor and behavior also bear similarities to those of Margot’s former best friend.

After moving into a house off campus that is owned and maintained by the Kappa Nu fraternity, Margot, Lucy, Sloane, and Nicole spend the summer drinking, smoking, and partying. They often hang out with Trevor, Kappa Nu’s president; Lucas, who is interested in Sloane; and, to Margot’s surprise, Levi Butler, who plans to attend Rutledge in the fall. Margot is disturbed to see Levi and implies to Lucy, Nicole, and Sloane that he killed Eliza. Lucy develops an interest in Levi, however, paying close attention to him at parties and events. Over the summer, Margot, Nicole, Sloane, and Lucy become inseparable friends, though Sloane and Margot notice how Lucy appears to play with and control people, including their friend group.

As the semester begins, the women largely operate separately: Margot and Sloane focus on schoolwork, while Lucy and Nicole continue to party. Nicole begins to encounter issues in her relationship with Trevor, a relationship that began at Lucy’s urging. One night at Penny Lanes, the bowling alley where Lucy works, she asks Levi whether he’d kill someone if he had the chance, looking knowingly at Margot. On Halloween, Margot encounters Maggie and feels guilty for abandoning her friend. Seeing Levi, Margot confronts him because it appears that he has entered the house she shares with Lucy, Sloane, and Nicole. Margot finds Nicole drunk and vomiting in the bathroom at the house and begins to suspect that Levi broke in and sexually assaulted Nicole.

Over Thanksgiving break, Margot and Lucy stay at the house instead of going home, and they have Thanksgiving dinner with Trevor, Lucas, Levi, and two other fraternity men. Lucy and Margot grow closer, and Lucy continues to take an interest in Levi. Margot notices that Nicole and Trevor’s relationship is strained and that Nicole is avoiding Levi. On the roof of the house, Lucy tells Margot about her troubled childhood, saying that she wants to start over. She also tells Margot about a crawl space underneath the house, where the fraternity traps pledges as a form of hazing. Over the Christmas break, Margot visits Mr. Jefferson, Eliza’s father, and she finds an envelope full of cash in Eliza’s room. The envelope is addressed to a location in Fairfield, North Carolina. She sees Lucy next door, kissing Levi. During Christmas break, Lucy stays with Margot.

The new semester begins, and Sloane confronts Margot about Lucy’s behavior, revealing that Lucy isn’t really a student at Rutledge and urging Margot to be cautious when interacting with her. Nicole starts losing weight and appears unwell, while her strained relationship with Trevor continues. To celebrate the official end of the pledges’ obligations, the fraternity throws a party on an island. At the party, Trevor is drunk and fights with Levi, while Lucy tries to comfort him. Margot asks Danny, a boy from Lucy’s hometown, about her, and he reveals that Lucy fought with her boyfriend, Parker, shortly before he died in a car accident, for which many people blamed Lucy. Margot returns to the party, drinks heavily, and blacks out.

On the morning after the party, Margot discovers Levi’s body; he apparently was strangled during the night. In the aftermath of his death, Margot discovers that Lucy is Eliza’s half-sister, the result of an affair that Mr. Jefferson had in his youth. Lucy, who is 23, spent several years stalking and attempting to emulate Eliza to take over her life. Lucy reveals that she knows Margot was present at the party and fought with Eliza in the moments before her death. Margot insists that Eliza’s death was accidental, and Lucy denies killing Levi. Sloane, who knows that Nicole killed Levi, thinking he was Trevor, and wants to protect her, kills Lucy. The novel then reveals Nicole’s motive for wanting to attack Trevor: On Halloween, Trevor sexually assaulted Nicole. Although Levi witnessed it, he didn’t do anything. The three women hide Lucy’s body and decide to pretend that Lucy ran away.

In the weeks following Levi’s death, Detective Frank visits the three women frequently, asking them about Lucy. They don’t lie directly to Frank, but they obscure the fact that they killed Lucy and hid her body in the crawl space under the house. The house and the fraternity are disbanded and abandoned, and Trevor faces charges for endangering Levi. Margot discovers that Levi was suspicious of Lucy and knew of her existence when Eliza was still alive. In the end, the three women live in a new apartment, and Margot cherishes their friendship, noting that they depend on each other for their safety.